(2)@5:21μμ To χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του Μικρομέτοχου (25/5/2020)

ΟΠΩΣ την περιμέναμε εξελίχθηκε σήμερα η συνεδρίαση, με το κερδοσκοπικό ενδιαφέρον να επικεντρώνεται στις (3) Συστημικές που αποχωρούν από τον μεγάλο MSCI παίρνοντας μεταγγραφή στον μικρό και με τον τζίρο τους μάλιστα να καλύπτει το 60% του συνολικού.

  • ΑΝΟΔΙΚΕΣ – ΠΤΩΤΙΚΕΣ 60 -44
  • ΑΞΙΑ ΣΥΝΑΛΛΑΓΩΝ: 50,06 εκατ. ευρώ
  • ΣΕ ΠΑΚΕΤΑ: 10,55 εκατ. ευρώ


ΜΕ ΤΟΝ ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΟ ΤΖΙΡΟ


ΜΕ ΤΗΝ ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΑΝΟΔΟ


ΜΕ ΤΗΝ ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΠΤΩΣΗ

___________________

(1)@3:50μμ To χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του Μικρομέτοχου (25/5/2020)

SPREADS – ΠΑΡΕΑ ΜΕ ΤΟΥΣ ΓΕΙΤΟΝΕΣ

ΧΩΡΑ ΑΠΟΔΟΣΗ % Spread vs BUND
ΕΛΛΑΔΑ 1,64 +2,14
ΠΟΡΤΟΓΑΛΙΑ 0,70 +1,20
ΙΣΠΑΝΙΑ 0,68 +1,18
ΙΤΑΛΙΑ 1,59 +2,09
  • ΑΝΟΔΙΚΕΣ – ΠΤΩΤΙΚΕΣ 65 – 40
  • ΤΖΙΡΟΣ: 36,3 εκατ. ευρώ

  • ΜΕ ΤΗΝ ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΑΝΟΔΟ


ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΑ: Την υστέρηση εσόδων κατά 409 εκατ. ευρώ αλλά και την υπέρβαση δαπανών κατά 1,2 δισ. ευρώ τον Απρίλιο λόγω των μέτρων στήριξης που συνδέονται με τον κορονοϊό ανακοίνωσε το υπουργείο Οικονομικών. Οι δαπάνες του κρατικού προϋπολογισμού για την περίοδο του Απριλίου 2020 φαίνεται πως ανήλθαν στα 5,246 δισ. ευρώ και παρουσιάζονται αυξημένες κατά 1,189 δισ. ευρώ έναντι του στόχου (4,057 δισ. ευρώ), κυρίως λόγω της αποζημίωσης ειδικού σκοπού λόγω της πανδημίας του κορονοϊού και της υπέρβαση στόχου ΠΔΕ.

ΟΜΟΛΟΓΑ – ΕΥΡΩΖΩΝΗ: Σταθεροποιητικά κινούνται οι αποδόσεις των ομολόγων της Ευρωζώνης σήμερα, καθώς η αγορά αγνόησε την αντίθεση της Αυστρίας, της Σουηδίας, της Δανίας και της Ολλανδίας σε ένα Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης της ΕΕ που θα βασίζεται σε επιχορηγήσεις και αναμένει την ανακοίνωση της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής την Τετάρτη για το Ταμείο.

Η απόδοση του ιταλικού 10ετούς τίτλου δεν παρουσίασε μεταβολή και διαμορφωνόταν στο 1,60%, ενώ η απόδοση του αντίστοιχου γερμανικού ομολόγου υποχωρούσε κατά μία μονάδα βάσης στο -0,50%. Οι τέσσερις χώρες κατέγραψαν το Σάββατο πιο αναλυτικά την εκπεφρασμένη αντίθεσή τους στη γαλλογερμανική πρόταση για τη δημιουργία ενός Ταμείου Ανάκαμψης της ΕΕ, ύψους 500 δις. ευρώ, το οποίο θα δίνει επιχορηγήσεις στις περιοχές που έχουν πληγεί περισσότερο από την πανδημία του κορονοϊού.

  • “Προτείνουμε τη δημιουργία ενός Έκτακτου Ταμείου Ανάκαμψης που θα βασίζεται σε μία προσέγγιση ‘δάνεια για δάνεια’, ανέφεραν οι χώρες σε non-paper με τη θέση τους.
  • Σύμφωνα με το non-paper, το Ταμείο δεν πρέπει να οδηγεί σε οποιαδήποτε αμοιβαιοποίηση χρεών και πρέπει να είναι προσωρινό, εφάπαξ μορφής και με ρητή ημερομηνίας λήξης μετά από δύο χρόνια.
  • Η αναφορά της γαλλογερμανικής πρότασης σε επιχορηγήσεις αντί δανείων έδωσε ώθηση στα ιταλικά ομόλογα την περασμένη εβδομάδα, τα οποία είχαν την καλύτερη επίδοση εδώ και οχτώ εβδομάδες.

Οι επιχορηγήσεις από την ΕΕ δεν θα προσμετρηθούν στο υψηλό χρέος της Ιταλίας, για το οποίο οι επενδυτές ανησυχούν ότι μπορεί να μην είναι βιώσιμο αν η Ρώμη αναλάβει την αποπληρωμή όλων των δαπανών της για την αντιμετώπιση του κορονοϊού. Ο πρόεδρος του Eurogroup Μάριο Σεντένο δήλωσε ότι το γαλλογερμανικό Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης θα είναι ένα μεγάλο βήμα προς μία δημοσιονομική ένωση της περιοχής. ΠΗΓΗ: ΑΜΠΕ

  • ΜΕ ΤΗΝ ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΠΤΩΣΗ


ΜΗΝΥΜΑ:

  • ΕΣΕΙΣ εκεί στην ΝΔ να μην νομιζετε οτι εχετε μαντρωμενους τους επαγγελματιες, και κανετε τα γλυκα ματια στους δημοσιους υπαλληλους και μονον. Και μην ειστε παντως, και τοοοσο σιγουροι οτι ολοι οι ειλωτες του ιδιωτικου τομεα, θα σας (ξανα)ψηφισουν και παλι σωρηδον.

******

Daily Monitor 25-05-2020

US Markets will remain closed (Memorial Day), we expect banking sector to be in the spotlight ahead of Q1:20 results and MSCI rebalancing.

Agenda:- Hellenic Exchanges Q1:20. 

Macros 

Greece: The government is expecting a growth boost to the tune of 1.5-2% of gross domestic product for the next three years through the EU Recovery Fund, if it is approved, based on a proposal the European Commission will submit on Wednesday. 

  • This is the biggest post-lockdown weapon aiding the return to growth, with Greece anticipating at least 8-10 billion euros, while the amount due could be far higher. Sources say Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has already spoken with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen ahead of the submission of the Commission’s proposal, formed on the basis of a French-German agreement for a €500-billion fund.

Greece/Unemployment: Some 580,000 people are expected to lose their jobs between March and July this year, of which 224,000 jobs will be shed in the tourist industry, the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises known as SEV said. In a bulletin, industrialists recommended the €1.4bn revenues from the SURE program, which correspond to 483 euros per person for the next five months, to be used on preserving jobs during the financial crisis, so that firms can cut working hours rather than sack people.

  • The consequences of the coronavirus pandemic on the labor market are now obvious, as data from the Manpower Organization (OAED) showed that the number of registered unemployed rose in April by 211,526 or 21.73% from the same month in 2019. There was a 35.09% rise in the number of jobless on unemployment benefits to 49,980 people. In total, the number of people registered with OAED as unemployed last month came to 1,185,013, up by 53,367 or 4.72% from the previous month. The number of long-term unemployed – i.e. those without a job for at least 12 months – came to 531,464. 

Greece/Moody’s: Moody’s argues that Greece’s (B1 stable) credit profile is constrained by the country’s elevated public debt burden, which stood at 177% of GDP last year and is one of the highest ratios among Moody’s-rated sovereigns. That said, Moody’s believes that “the coronavirus outbreak has interrupted the country’s improving credit trends, but it should be a transitory shock.” Moreover, the cost and structure of debt mitigate very elevated debt levels.  “Greece’s public finances have improved significantly over the past several years, and the government that was elected last July has made a promising start with its investment-focused policy program,” said Muehlbronner, a Moody’s Senior Vice President and the report’s author.

  • “But successive governments will need to maintain a prudent fiscal stance for years to come to ensure long-term debt sustainability. Other reforms implemented over the past years, including measures to strengthen institutions, will need to be sustained and deepened.” Greece’s credit strengths include its relatively wealthy population, a benign debt-servicing profile that provides fiscal flexibility despite the large debt burden and significant euro area support, Moody’s says in its annual report.

The sovereign rating could be upgraded if the government continued to implement the commitments given to the euro area, including reforms that had resulted in an improved business climate and stronger investment while maintaining solid public finances. Renewed impetus for improving the banking sector’s health would also be positive. Conversely, downward pressure on the rating could develop if the Greek government were to deviate from its commitments and reverse previously agreed and legislated reforms, or if tensions with official creditors reemerged for any other reason, Moody’s reckons. 

Greece/Travel Services Balance: Greece’s balance of travel services showed a surplus of €32mn in March, down from the year-ago figure of €68mn, according to provisional data from the Bank of Greece. In March, travel receipts declined 71% y-o-y to €92mn while travel payments slipped 75.7% to €61mn.

  • “The fall in travel receipts resulted from a 46.8% decline in inbound traveler flows and a 45.7% decrease in average expenditure per trip. Net receipts from travel services offset 1.8% of the goods deficit and accounted for 8.9% of total net receipts from services,” BoG said in a statement. The number of inbound visitors stood at 411K, down 47% y-o-y. In the January-March period, the balance of travel services showed a surplus of €185mn, up from a surplus of €165mn in the same period of 2019. 

Greece/Credit Expansion: Total credit in Greece’s banking system expanded 0.7% year-on-year in March after a 1% decline in the previous month, Bank of Greece data showed on Friday. 

Airlines: Restrictions allowing international flights to and from Athens only have been extended to June 30, according to a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) issued by the Civil Aviation Authority on Saturday. The ban to other Greek airports only exempts emergency, state, cargo, humanitarian, ferry, military and Frontex flights, those carrying health equipment and those for passenger transits and repatriations. 

Corporate 

Autohellas: Hertz Global Holdings files for Chapter 11 protection. Recall that short term car rental accounts for 16% of Autohellas consolidated sales in FY’19 whereas long term car leasing, car sales and retail operations constitute 84% of consolidated sales. 

Piraeus Bank: The bank called for an Extraordinary GM on June 16 regarding bank’s subsidiaries transformation 

Fourlis: The company calls for its Annual General Meeting on June 12. No dividend for FY 2019 to preserve cash genearation vs initial announcement of FY’19 DPS of gross €0.12/share. On May 21, the company bought 292 own shares at €3.6412/share for a total consideration of €1.603K. Fourlis now owns 334,322 own shares or 0.6429% of share capital. 

BRIQ PROPERTIES: On May 21, the company bought 3,000 own shares at €1.661/share (€4.98K) 

Thessaloniki Port: The company will announce FY 2019 financial results today after market close. AGM June 30. Dividend ex-date July6.Dividend payment July 13. 

Profile: The company trades ex dividend gross €0.025/share (net €0.0239/share) on May 26 with payment completed on June 2. 

Aegean Air: The company rescheduled its AGM for July 9. Greek government is mulling an aid package to support Aegean Airlines to weather the COVID-19 fallout, Development Minister Georgiadis said. “We will not let companies, such as Aegean Airlines, without help,” he told a press conference. He also said that Aegean is a company of strategic importance and since its competitors are receiving state subsidies that creates a problem with the rules of fair competition. He added that the problem “is not whether the state will become a shareholder in the company but to present a comprehensive plan.” 

MOH: The company will announce Q1’20 financial results on June 3 after market close. 

OTE: On May 21, the company bought 53,434 own shares at €12.3252/share (total cost €658.589K). OTE now owns 2,915,505 total own shares or 0.62% of share capital. 

Terna Energy: On May 21, the company bought 16,444 own shares for a total consideration of €151.167K (€9.1928 avg price per share). 

Hellenic Exchanges (Q1’20 preview): The company is expected to report Q1’20 financial results today after market close. Amid a strong Q1’20 in terms of trading volumes (ADTV at €84.8mn vs €45.96mn in Q1’19) we expect a strong start for the year with top line increasing 28.6% y-o-y to €7.74mn vs €6mn a year earlier. Combined with higher y-o-y Avg Fee per derivative contract at €0.22 (€0.18 in Q1’19) and lower y-o-y Avg Daily Contracts (38.66K in Q1’20 vs 40.1K in Q1’19) we expect all main revenue generating lines to boost consolidated sales.

Trading income is seen 62.6% higher y-o-y to €1.5mn, Clearing income is forecasted to grow by 64.3% to €2.68mn, Settlement revenues are seen 6.65% higher to €0.41mn and depository service revenues to grow by 43% to €0.74mn.

Inelastic cost base with circa 55% of quarter’s cost related to personnel expenses expected 8.9% higher y-o-y to 2.7mn and other costs coming in 23.8% higher to €2.14mn will lead Q1’20 EBITDA 59% higher to €2.94mn vs €1.85mn a year earlier. Flat y-o-y depreciation charges coupled with 24% effective tax rate result in our estimate for Q1’20 net income doubling to €1.52mn compared to €0.7mn in Q1’19.

The following table summarizes our estimates for Hellenic Exchanges Q1’20 financial performance: 

Hellenic Exchanges

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1 est

(%)

Sales

6,020

7,740

28.6%

EBITDA

1,850

2,940

58.9%

EBITDA Mrg

30.7%

38.0%

+725 bps

Net Income

690

1,520

120.3%

Net Mrg

11.5%

19.6%

+818 bps

  • Conference Call: Tuesday May 26 4.00pm Local Greek Time (UK 2pm, NY 9am)

§  GR           +30 213 009 6000 or +30 211 180 2000

§  UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  USA         +1 516 447 5632

§  Other      +44 (0) 203 059 5872

Other FY:20 Results 

Thessaloniki Water

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

73,030

72,686

-0.5%

EBITDA

25,478

25,925

1.8%

EBITDA Mrg

34.9%

35.7%

+78 bps

Net Income

14,001

14,658

4.7%

Net Mrg

19.2%

20.2%

+99 bps



NEWSPHONE

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

21,526

20,239

-6.0%

EBITDA

462

597

29.3%

EBITDA Mrg

2.1%

3.0%

+81 bps

Net Income

-1,643

244

114.8%

Net Mrg

-7.6%

1.2%

+884 bps


CRETAN PLASΤICS

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

280,500

288,800

3.0%

EBITDA

47,637

55,700

16.9%

EBITDA Mrg

17.0%

19.3%

+230 bps

Net Income

28,900

38,400

32.9%

Net Mrg

10.3%

13.3%

+299 bps

AthEx Calendar – Upcoming General Meetings

25/05 Elvalhalcor AGM, Dividend €0.03

26/05 Viohalco: AGM

27/05 Jumbo AGM, AUDIOVISUAL EGM change of corporate id

29/05 Intralot, AGM HELEX, AGM,

02/06 Dromeas AGM

04/04: Attica Bank AGM, Mytilineos AGM

10/06: Loulis Mills AGM

12/06: Fourlis AGM

16/06 Cretan Plastics AGM Bank of Piraeus EGM

17/06 Elton Chemicals

18/06 Lavipharm AGM

19/06 Thessaloniki Water AGM

24/06 Hellenic Petroleum AGM

25/06 BYTE AGM, Sidma AGM, PPA AGM, PPC AGM

26/06 Ellaktor AGM, Athens Water AGM, Flecopack AGM, Forthnet AGM, Motodynamics AGM, Quest Holdings AGM

27/06 Jumbo AGM Dividend €0.062, Paperpack AGM

29/06 Petropoulos AGM Intralot AGM

30/06 Intercontinental REIC, HAIDEMENOS AGM

07/07 KRI – KRI AGM

09/07 Aegean Air EGM

15/07 Thrace Plastics

16/07 IPTO AGM

17/07 Motor oil AGM

27/07 Varvaressos AGM

30/07 Trastor AGM

01/09 ANEK AGM

02/09 Newsphone AGM 

Results Announcements

25/05   Athens Exchange Q1:20

28/05   NBG Q1:20 Alpha Bank Q1:20

29/05   BYTE FY:19, Eurobank Q1:20

01/06   Piraeus Bank Q1:20 (After Market)

03/06    Motor Oil Q1:20

09/06   Quest Q1:20

30/05    Athens Water FY:19

30/06   Athens Medical FY:19 

Kind Regards,

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of research