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Banking Sector results: 

Second quarter of 2019 seems that will mark a material improvement in core income as trends in NII stabilise while fee income will post a high single digit increase. On the cost side seasonal factors -calendar effect- and VRS should burden expenses remaining though on a recurring basis below the 45% C/I mark.

  • CoR is normalising moving towards FY:19 guidance on NPEs and NPLs negative formation while some credit expansion helped ratios too.  One offs related to GGB’s appreciation and real estate assets disposal (Pangaea, Ex-Vovos Real Estate etc) assisted to positive bottom line in all four systemic peers.

Deposits are expected higher as flows getting stronger seasonally. Note that NBG and Eurobank may switch to standardised method of accounting NPEs in RWA.

This means that for every €1 of net NPE removed from the balance sheet at Alpha and Piraeus, these banks can reduce RWAs by €1; whereas Eurobank and NBG can only reduce RWAs by €0.3. The switch may impact CET-1 lower by 60 – 100 bps.

  •  In more details: 

NBG (Q2/H1:19 preview): 

NBG will announce Q2:19 results today after market hours followed by a conference call. Titlos swap to GGB’s will support NII which is seen at €302m up 4.1% q-o-q. Fees income has also improved by 5.1% y-o-y on higher credit cards utilisation and asset management fees.

  • Total income will reach €409m -9.1% q-o-q on lower trading income. With OpEx flattish q-o-q PPP is expected at €205m (-16% q-o-q). We see provision impairments slightly lower at €100m which will bring PBT at €105m assuming 150bps CoR.

Taxation and the disposal of Pangaea stake –which is classified as discontinued in Q2:19- will make for net profits in the tune of €156m. Despite GGB’s revaluation in Tangible Equity NBG’s CET-1 may decrease by 10bps due at 15.6% to the change in NPEs calculation methodology. 

  • NBG has concluded in Q2:19 the sale of €0.9 bn of secured small and medium business NPEs (Symbol) at c28% and the sale of €1.2 bn of unsecured retail NPEs (Mirror) at more than 9.0%. Both transactions were capital accretive. NBG also plans the sale of €0.7bn of corporate loans by end-2019. NBG trades 0.43x its T/BV. 

The following table summarise our estimates: 

NBG

 

 

Est.

Overview

(In Million Euro)

2Q18

1Q19

2Q19

Q-o-Q

Y-o-Y

NII

276

290

302

4.1%

9.4%

Fee income

59

59

62

5.1%

5.1%

Trading Income

-8

122

50

-59.0%

725.0%

Insurance/Other Income

-8

-21

-5

76.2%

37.5%

Total income

319

450

409

-9.1%

28.2%

Operating costs

-279

-205

-204

0.5%

26.9%

Pre-provision-profits

40

245

205

-16.3%

412.5%

Provisions

-38

-103

-100

2.9%

-163.2%

Other results

-9

-7

0

PBT

-7

135

105

-22.2%

1600.0%

Corporate taxes

12

4

10

150.0%

-16.7%

Net profit (continued)

-19

131

95

-27.5%

600.0%

Discontinued operations

14

21

70

233.3%

400.0%

Net profit

-5

152

165

8.6%

3400.0%

Minorities

-10

-10

-9

10.0%

10.0%

Attributable net profit

-15

142

156

9.9%

1140.0%

 Conference call details (Thursday, August 29th, 18:00 GR- Time)

  • GR           30 211 180 2000
  • UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063
  • US           +1 516 447 5632

Alpha Bank (Q2/H1:19 preview): 

Alpha Bank will announce Q2/H1:19 today follower by a conference call at 19:00 Athens Time. Alpha Bank is expected to post net profits of €49.5m on another good quarter for its GGB’s portfolio and its trading desk.

  • NII is expected flat at €388m while fees are seen up by 14% at €80m assisted also by loan disposals and the beginning of the favourable tourism season. Total income is seen at €603m while VRS (€15m) and some increase in OpEx will bring PPP at €323m up 19% q-o-q.

Alpha Bank will restate Cost of Risk absolute number to separate actual impairments from negative NPV losses on restructured loans to provide clarity on the selected figure. Having said CoR is expected to reach FY19 guidance level of 180 bps or €247m.

  • Alpha Bank has initiated the process for €3.8bn of NPE transactions to be concluded by end-2019. Specifically, it has received non-binding offers for €1.8 bn of corporate NPEs secured with real estate valued at €1.2bn (Neptune). The binding offers are expected in the Fall. Alpha Bank trades 0.30x its T/BV

The following table summarise our estimates: 

Alpha Bank

Est.

Overview

(In Million Euro)

2Q18

1Q19

2Q19

QoQ

YoY

NII

459.0

388.4

388

-0.1%

-15.5%

Fee income

84.6

70.2

80

14.0%

-5.4%

Trading

77.5

73.8

125

69.4%

61.3%

Other Income

10.3

0.9

10

1011.1%

-2.9%

Total income

631.4

533.3

603.0

13.1%

-4.5%

Operating costs

-281

-262.0

-280

-6.9%

0.2%

Pre-provision-profits

351

271.3

323.0

19.1%

-7.9%

Provisions

-314

-243.0

-247

-1.6%

21.3%

Other results

-43

20

-10

-150.0%

PBT

-6.0

48.3

66.0

36.6%

1200.0%

Corporate taxes

47

23.6

16.5

-29.9%

-64.7%

Net profit (continued)

-53

25

50

100.0%

193.8%

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

Net profit

-52.8

24.8

49.5

100.0%

193.8%

Minorities

0.0

0.0

0.0

Attributable net profit

-52.8

24.8

49.5

100.0%

193.8%

Conference call details (Thursday, August 29th, 19:00 GR- Time)

  • GR           30 211 180 2000
  • UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063
  • US           +1 516 447 5632

Motor Oil (Q2/H1:19 Results review): 

Motor oil posted adjusted net income of €43.8m in Q2:19 coming below and consensus estimates. Lower utilisation of the refinery and weak refining environment is behind Q2:19 performance. However, the group presented a strong FCF generation delivering €169m in just one quarter a figure that is above MOH’s reported Q2:19 EBITDA courtesy of working capital cycle. A conference call will follow today to discuss results with the management team after market hours. In more details:

§   Refinery utilization in 2Q19 declined with processed volumes and output dropping by 13 and 14% y-o-y respectively. The drop in production though was partially mitigated by increased trading volumes (+63.4% y-o-y), with total sales volumes in 2Q declining by 2.7% y-o-y. Exports were down at 68.3% of total sales vs. 71% a year ago. Higher yield of special products amid lower fuel oil assisted in keeping refining margin (6.2$/bbl) considerably better vs. med benchmark. Refining EBITDA came at €72.1m vs €130.3m, -44% y-o-y  and -12% vs. our call.

§   On marketing IFRS 16 impact had a positive effect boosting the EBITDA to €33.1m +15.3% y-o-y. Note that in H1:19 fuel consumption is flattish thus MOH’s gas station network is to gain more market share following marketing volumes increase (581K MT vs 553K MT). Inventory gains were in the tune of €3m in the quarter and €61m in the first half. Refining CapEx was at €39.7m while the projection for the full year raised at €115m including part of the €310m new naphtha treatment complex plant.

§   On the cash flow front Motor oil delivered €169m of cash in the quarter lowering net debt by c€130m at €218m, while accounting for leasing facilities net debt is at €366m.

§   In the conference call we expect fresh colour on FY:19 outlook as we approach the IMO 2020 deadline. The quarter should be less eventful than the previous one now that the new investment has been announced. Note that the acquisition of IBG is concluded in Q3:19 thus net debt is seen slightly lower by €20m, this quarter. In the beginning of Q3:19 gasoline margins rebound supported by driving season demand assisted in a strong rebound in refining margins.

Motor oil trades 5.1x EV/EBITDA and has a dividend yield of 6%. 

The following table summarise results vs. our estimates: 

Motor oil

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2019 (Est.)

Vs

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2019 (Est.)

Vs

EUR mn.

H1

H1

(%)

H1

Estimate

2Q

2Q

(%)

2Q

Estimate

Volumes (MTx1000)

6,985

6,872

-1.6%

6,951

-1.1%

3,537

3,441

-2.7%

3,520

-2.2%

Sales

4,420.3

4,556.9

3.1%

4,487

1.6%

2,376.2

2,360.1

-0.7%

2,290

3.1%

EBITDA

287.0

291.7

1.6%

298.5

-2.3%

191.0

102.2

-46.5%

109.0

-6.2%

Adjusted EBITDA

266.0

230.7

-13.3%

239.0

-3.5%

159.0

105.2

-33.8%

113.5

-7.3%

of Which Refining

221.7

175.3

-20.9%

185.2

-5.3%

130.3

72.1

-44.7%

82.0

-12.1%

of which Marketing & other

44.3

55.4

25.1%

53.8

3.0%

28.7

33.1

15.3%

31.5

5.1%

Net Income

148.7

148.5

-0.1%

157.1

-5.5%

107.7

41.8

-61.2%

50.4

-17.1%

Adjusted Net Income

133.8

105.1

-21.4%

114.8

-8.5%

85.0

43.9

-48.4%

54

-18.2%

Conference call details (Thursday, August 29th, 17:30 GR- Time)

  • §   GBR     0808 2380 669
  • §   GRE     800 848 1114
  • §   US        1 877 553 9962

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Hellenic Petroleum (Q2/H1:19 preview):

Hellenic Petroleum will announce H1:19 results today after market hours followed by a conference call at 18:00 Athens time. We expect HelPE to report a weaker quarter on lower diesel margins and tighter crude spreads. Hellenic’s weighted benchmark margins were down to their lowest level since Q2:14. Petchem and Marketing moderate performance assisted in offsetting the weaker refining. In more details:

Refining is expected as Diesel and fuel oil cracks have decreased vs Q1:19. Refining EBITDA is expected to reach €60m -56% y-o-y.

§   Petchems are seen lower as prices retreated contributing €24m vs 27m in €Q2:18.

§   Domestic marketing and International marketing as seen up 25% and 30% respectively accounting also IFRS16 impact.

§   All in we expect adj. EBITDA of €114m (-39% yoy) mainly negatively affected by the refining division while adj. net income is seen at €17.3m (-78% y-o-y). Small inventory gains in the tune of €4m are expected to offset weak adj. performance on a reported basis.

§   On a half year basis HELPE is expected to post €237m adj. EBITDA and €54.3m adj. net income 

In the beginning of Q3:19 diesel cracks reversed pointing to an improving second half of 2019 as the shipping industry prepares for the upcoming IMO 2020 regulation. We expect some colour on this plus any new strategic priorities from the new management or/and developments related to the new scheme of privatisation. HELPE trades at a 6.6x EV/EBITDA multiple – quite demanding excused partly by the privatisation prospects. 

The following table summarise our estimates: 

Hellenic Petroleum

2018

2019 (Est.)

Y-o-Y

2018

2019 (Est.)

Y-o-Y

EUR mn.

H1

H1

(%)

2Q

2Q

(%)

Refining Volumes (MTx1000)

8,267

7,701.0

-6.8% 

4,165 

4,150 

-0.4% 

Marketing Volumes (MTx1000)

2,236

2,300.0

2.9% 

1,190 

1,200 

0.8% 

Petchems Volumes (MTx1000)

133

138.0

3.8% 

67 

65 

-3.0% 

Sales

4,667

4,341

-7.0% 

2,499 

2,350 

-6.0% 

Refining Supply & Trading

250.0

140.0

-44.0% 

137.0

60.0 

-56.2% 

Petchem

53.0

49.0

-7.5% 

27.0

24.0 

-11.1% 

Domestic Marketing

15.0

22.0

46.7% 

12.0

15.0 

25.0% 

International Marketing

24.0

28.0

16.7% 

13.0

17.0 

30.8% 

Other

-6.0

-5.0

16.7% 

-2.0

-2 

0.0% 

Adjusted EBITDA

336

237

-29.5% 

187

114.0

-39.0% 

EBITDA

475

253

-46.7% 

307 

118.0

-61.6% 

Adjusted Net Income

128.0

54.3

-57.6% 

66 

17.3

-73.8% 

Net Income

225.0

67.2

-70.2% 

151 

20.2

-86.6% 

Inventory one offs

139

16

 

120 

 

  • Conference call details (Thursday, August 29th, 18:00 GR- Time)
  • GR           30 211 180 2000
  • ΜΑΝΟΣ ΧΑΤΖΗΔΑΚΗΣ
  • ΒΕΤΑ ΑΧΕΠΕΥ
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