(29/11) @15:45 Χ.Α: To χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μ/μ (1)

ANOΔΙΚΕΣ – ΠΤΩΤΙΚΕΣ 67 – 54 και τζίρος 42,8 εκατ. ευρώ. Σεντ τσακιστό δεν δίνουμε για την πορεία των αναξιόπιστων ούτως ή άλλως δεικτών. Κωμικοτραγελαφικό το καθημερινό θέαμα των σχετικών στηλών με βασικό τίτλο τους τις… 900 μονάδες. Αήττητη η βλακεία.

EUROXX: Οι ελληνικές τράπεζες σε λειτουργικό επίπεδο ήταν όλες κερδοφόρες, παρά την πίεση στα καθαρά έσοδα από τόκους (NII) λόγω της απομόχλευσης, ενώ οι επιχειρησιακοί στόχοι για τα NPEs επιτεύχθηκαν μετά και τον αρνητικό σχηματισμό NPEs. Επιπλέον, οι κεφαλαιακοί δείκτες σημείωσαν περαιτέρω βελτίωση μετά την ανάλυση των αποτελεσμάτων τρίτου τριμήνου των τεσσάρων συστημικών τραπεζών.

ΠΛΑΣΤΙΚΑ ΘΡΑΚΗΣ: Τα βασικά μεγέθη του Ομίλου για το εννεάμηνο της τρέχουσας χρήσεως σε σχέση με το εννεάμηνο του 2018 διαμορφώθηκαν ως εξής:

Πλαστικά Θράκης: Αύξηση κύκλου εργασιών και EBITDA στο εννεάμηνο

Το σύνολο των Ιδίων Κεφαλαίων στις 30.09.2019 ανήλθε σε 142,2 εκ. ευρώ σε σχέση με 141,6 εκ. στις 31.12.2018 και ο Καθαρός Τραπεζικός Δανεισμός σε 84,6 εκ. σε σχέση με 78,3 εκ. ευρώ στις 31.12.2018. Ο δείκτης Καθαρός Τραπεζικός Δανεισμός/ Ίδια Κεφάλαια διαμορφώθηκε σε 0,60 σε σχέση με 0,55 στις 31.12.2018.

  • SPREADS
ΧΩΡΑ ΑΠΟΔΟΣΗ % Spread vs BUND
ΕΛΛΑΔΑ 1,44 +1,80
ΠΟΡΤΟΓΑΛΙΑ 0,39 +0,76
ΙΣΠΑΝΙΑ 0,40 +0,77
ΙΤΑΛΙΑ 1,34 +1,71
  • ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΑΝΟΔΟΣ
ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΔΙΑΦ. ΟΓΚΟΣ
ΟΠΤΡΟΝ 2,9000 19,83 % 0,4800 291
ΚΡΕΚΑ 0,0580 19,59 % 0,0095 10
ΑΚΡΙΤ 0,5200 11,11 % 0,0520 350
ΑΤΕΚ 0,3300 10,00 % 0,0300 300
ΒΟΣΥΣ 2,3000 8,49 % 0,1800 31
ΛΟΓΟΣ 0,4820 6,17 % 0,0280 216
ΜΑΘΙΟ 0,5300 6,00 % 0,0300 52.000
ΕΒΡΟΦ 1,1500 5,99 % 0,0650 37.591
ΜΙΝ 0,2860 5,93 % 0,0160 2.000
ΠΡΟΝΤΕΑ 6,2500 5,93 % 0,3500 247
ΛΥΚ 1,5900 5,30 % 0,0800 10.920
ΙΝΤΕΚ 1,0000 5,26 % 0,0500 76
  • ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΟΣ ΤΖΙΡΟΣ
ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΟΓΚΟΣ ΤΖΙΡΟΣ
ΟΠΑΠ 11,1200 1,46 % 1.042.050 11,47εκ.
ΑΛΦΑ 1,8710 -1,47 % 1.940.576 3,63εκ.
ΕΥΡΩΒ 0,9500 -1,14 % 3.813.837 3,62εκ.
ΟΤΕ 13,6700 -0,44 % 198.246 2,71εκ.
ΕΤΕ 3,0770 -1,57 % 835.996 2,58εκ.
ΜΥΤΙΛ 10,1800 3,46 % 217.026 2,19εκ.
ΜΠΕΛΑ 18,1700 -1,89 % 100.259 1,83εκ.
ΕΛΛΑΚΤΩΡ 1,7500 2,94 % 1.042.567 1,81εκ.
ΔΕΗ 3,2580 1,75 % 532.954 1,73εκ.
ΜΟΗ 21,4600 0,09 % 55.795 1,20εκ.
ΠΕΙΡ 3,1480 0,90 % 268.193 843,4χιλ.
ΕΕΕ 30,2000 0,00 % 25.665 774,1χιλ.

***

ΛΥΚΟΣ: Αντε τώρα βγάλε νόημα….

  • Στα 10 εκατ. η κ/φση της ΟΠΤΡΟΝ, στα 15 εκατ., η ΠΕΡΦ, στα 29 εκατ. η ΕΠΣΙΛ, στα 32 εκατ. η ΕΝΤΕΡΣΟΦΤ, ΠΡΟΦ (42,5 εκατ.) ΠΑΠ (40,5) ΜΟΤΟ (41)

Και ο ΛΥΚ… 32,5 εκατ. ευρώ; Πάνε καλά;

Και ουδείς ψόγος για τις κ/φσεις τους (μαγκιά τους), εμείς απλά καταθέτουμε το παρανο’ι’κό του όλου πράγματος.

  • Και δεν πάμε σε περιπτώσεις όπως αυτές των ΦΟΡΘ (72,5) και ΦΡΙΓΟ (70)… Όπου κυριολεκτικά είναι να τρελαίνεσαι.

ΤΕΧΝΙΚΗ ΕΙΚΟΝΑ: Μέχρι τα 1,9000 πάει άνετα.. Απο εκεί και πάνω όμως εαν τα σπάσει πάει για 3,7000!! ΥΠΕΡΒΟΛΙΚΟ ΦΥΣΙΚΑ ΝΟΥΜΕΡΟ με τα νυν δεδομένα… Γιατί θα έχει κ/φση 76,5 εκατ., που δεν την δικαιολογεί. Αλλά τα 2,4000 τάχει άνετα…

****

In the SpotlightΒΕΤΑ SEC

Banking Sector: Private sector deposits i resumed their rising course in October, after a mild decline in September, data from the central bank showed. Private sector deposits increased by €643mn compared to a decline of €622mn in the previous month, while the annual growth rate stood at 6.4% vs. 5.7% in September. Deposits amounted to €139.7bn as of end October. In October, corporate deposits firmed by €186mn compared with a decrease of €723mn in the previous month, while the annual growth rate stood at 6.1% from 4.1% in the previous month. Deposits of households and non-profit institutions rose by €457mn, compared with an increase of €10mn in September, and the annual growth rate stood at 6.5% versus 6.0% in the previous month.

Looking at the credit expansion, the growth rate of the total credit extended to the economy remained in negative ground in October, at -0.8% y-o-y vs. -0.9% in the previous month, Bank of Greece said. The monthly net flow was positive by €474mn compared with a positive flow of €182mn in September. Credit to private sector stood at -0.2% vs. -0.5% in September. The net flow was negative by €431mn compared with a negative net flow of €92mn in the previous month. 

OTE: Treasury stock stands at 1.668% of share capital (8,005,624 shares). 

NBG: National Bank clarified that the sale of its subsidiary NBG Cyprus to AstroBank is expected to boost its CET1 ratio by some 10 basis points. Responding to a Capital Market Commission’s query, NBG said that the sale is expected to be concluded in the first half of 2020, while the consideration will be finalized after the close of the transaction. 

B&F: Treasury bonds amount to 114 (or 0.47% of the issue). 

YALCO: As of today the 13,191,620 (CB) shares of the company are converted to an equal number of (CR) shares, while remaining under suspension of trading. On November 29, 2019, the total number of the company’s listed shares amounts to 13,191,620 (CR) shares. 

BRIQ Properties: The company concluded the acquisition of a real estate asset in Athens town center regarding mixed use (Office premises and retail outlet) for €6.5mn through a bridge financing that will be paid off with share capital issue proceeds when concluded. 

Intralot: The company will announce Q3’19 financial results today after market close. A conference call analyzing quarterly financial performance will follow on Monday December 2nd at 5pm (local Greek Time). 

ADMIE: 9M’19 results will be published on Monday December 2nd before market opening. 

Thrace Plastics: 9M 2019 results to be published today before market opening. 

Ellaktor: Reportedly the group is on roadshow presentations for a senior €600m Eurobond 

****

ΚRΙ ΚRΙ (Results Q3/9M:19 results review): 

The company reported an upbeat (compared to a soft Q2) set of Q3/9M’19 financial results beating our estimates on all major P&L lines. In specific sales during 9M’19 period advance d 19% to €92.94mn (vs our call for €90.4mn on strong rebound in the domestic ice cream market (on improved weather conditions and 950 new POS added in the period totaling more than 16K POS), market share gains in the domestic yogurt market (with MS reaching 15.8%) couple with expansion in certain yogurt product categories (Strained, infants, kids) and new PL agreements (LIDL) and strong international yogurt exports basically towards UK on co-operations with major retail players on their PL product. International yogurt sales advanced 36.3% vs our estimate for 30% y-o-y growth while in the domestic yogurt sales increased by 13% (our call was for a 10% y-o-y rise). Total exports now account for more than 38% of total sales.

EBITDA margin came in 65bps lower y-o-y on stronger PL contribution (a lower margin business) and raw materials increased input costs with EBITDA clinching to €19.9mn, 15.5% higher on a yearly basis, still comfortably beating our call for €19.2mn. On a final notch net income recorded record high figure of €12.5mn on a 28% effective tax rate recorded.

As Q4 is neglectable in bottom line profitability we expect a more than €12mn FY’19 net income. Our projection stands at €12.06mn. We will fine tune our estimates and will revert with an update. KRI KRI trades at projected FY’20 PE 12.1 and EV/EBITDA 7.5x. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT recommendation with €5.35 TP which will be also updated.  Group remains net cash in 9M:19 by 1m supported by positive FCF of €2m. 

The following table summarizes KRI – KRI Q3/9M’19 financial performance: 

KRI KRI

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2019

Act. vs

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2019

Act. vs

EUR m.

9Μ

9Μ

(%)

9Μ est

Est.

Q3

Q3

(%)

Q3 est

Est.

Sales

78.1

92.9

19.0% 

90.4

2.8% 

27.1

35.5

31.2% 

33.0

7.7% 

EBITDA

17.2

19.9

15.5% 

19.2

3.7% 

5.5

7.7

39.0% 

7.0

10.2% 

EBITDA Mrg

22.1% 

21.4% 

-65 bps 

21.2% 

0.9%

20.4% 

21.6% 

+121 bps 

21.1% 

2.3%

Net Income

10.6

12.5

17.9% 

11.99

3.8% 

3.2

4.8

50.3% 

4.4

10.6% 

Net Mrg

13.5% 

13.4% 

-13 bps 

13.3% 

1.0%

11.8% 

13.5% 

+172 bps 

13.2% 

2.7%

****

Quest Holdings: 

The company during the conference call provided colour regarding FY consolidated results. Sales are expected to come in above €500mn (we project €558mn), EBITDA to exceed €50mn (we stand at €46.5mn), EBT to settle at €30mn (we call for €28.5mn) and Net income Before Minorities is to exceed €20mn (if the domestic corporate tax rate reduction form 28% to 24% is implemented, we stand at e19.1mn on 28% tax rate or €20.2mn with the reduced 24%).

Regarding balance sheet net debt is expect to land at e10mn in the FY’19 period, compared to €14mn in the 9M results, aided by WC/Sales improvement in Q4 in the capital intensive IT retail capital intensive volume business and completion of a Unisystems (IT services) project financing.

No further dividend distribution is expected for FY’19 whereas management is in search for further acquisitions on the lucrative solar energy sector. Capex for the FY is expected to come in at €33mn decomposing to €28mn growth capex (acquisitions) and €5mn maintenance capex. A strong Q4’19 performance expected for the remainder of the year as seasonality is strong especially in the retail business segment. Stay OVERWEIGHT while we expect to fine tune our FY’19 estimates and revise our TP. FY’19 PE14.1 and EV/EBITDA 5.6x 

INFO QUEST

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR m.

9M

9M

(%)

Q3

Q3

(%)

Sales

345.9

400.1

15.7% 

115.9

141.9

22.4% 

EBITDA

30.3

39.9

31.7% 

10.1

14.3

41.3% 

EBITDA Mrg

8.8% 

10.0% 

+121 bps 

8.7% 

10.1% 

+134 bps 

Net Income

11.3

15.8

39.6% 

3.9

5.4

36.7% 

Net Mrg

3.3% 

4.0% 

+68 bps 

3.4% 

3.8% 

+40 bps 

*****

OPAP (Q3/9M:19 results conference call):

OPAP held yesterday its Q3:19 conference call with analysts focusing on business development and dividend distribution. In more details:

§   Management said that desired Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is up to 2x. On our estimates FY 2020 EBITDA will stand in the area of €450m which opens the floor for a cumulative extraordinary and special dividend distribution of no less than 1.24 eur/share, with an implied dividend yield of 11.5% at current levels. OPAP said that all dividend payments are in the perimeter of the scrip dividend program which gives the optionality of shares distribution vs cash. On this front major shareholders (40%) may choose shares dividend keeping cash into the balance sheet and Debt/EBITDA ratio way lower than the threshold of 2x. Management also said that the interim dividend distribution will be continued in 2020.

§   As it regards to the bond issue management said that is assessing all options. In October 2019 OPAP raised Bank debt of €100mn to fund Stoihiman’s stake that expected to be finalized by year-end. This is another positive read since it releases FCF for the ordinary dividend.

§   Management expects tough comps during 4Q19 taking into account that KINO side bets were introduced into 4Q18; Joker online currently accounts for c. 4% of Joker’s turnover; in the mid-term management targets for Joker online to account for 10% of Joker’s turnover; plans to expand online offering based also on new regulatory framework to be in place within 2020

§   At the moment c. 22.9k machines have been installed with the remaining 2.1k to complete their deployment by year-end; 1.5k have been already certified by the HGC while the remaining 0.6k will be certified in the coming days; we point out the relative improvement y-o-y in terms of Net Drop/VLT/Day from EUR 38 to EUR 40 during 3Q19.

We stay firm for the stock as it is the name of the game for dividend distributions. OPAP trades 15.6x 2020 earnings and 9x its EV/EBITDA. 

The following table summarize Q3/9M:19 results: 

OPAP

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR mn.

9M

9M

(%)

Q3

Q3

(%)

Total Wagers

          3,213.6

          3,213.6

0.0%

1,045.2

1,081.9

3.5%

Payout Ratio

65.6%

63.5%

-208 bps

64.7%

63.6%

-109 bps

Sports Betting

                299.9

                283.7

-5.4%

97.5

91.9

-5.7%

Numerical Games

                561.1

                576.7

2.8%

189.6

197.4

4.1%

Lotteries

                105.2

                100.1

-4.8%

31.0

31.6

1.9%

VLTs

                140.2

                212.7

51.7%

50.8

72.8

43.3%

GGR

          1,106.3

          1,173.2

6.0%

        368.8

           393.6

6.7%

EBITDA

                244.6

                300.2

22.7%

87.2

101.6

16.5%

EBITDA Mrg

7.6%

9.3%

+173 bps

8.3%

9.4%

+105 bps

Net Income

                105.2

                140.7

33.8%

39.1

49.0

25.2%

Net Mrg

3.3%

4.4%

+111 bps

3.7%

4.5%

+78 bps

 

Manos Chatzidakis Head of research

  • 29 Alexandras Avenue
  • 11473 Athens,Greece
  • Tel: +30 210 6478755/754
  • Fax:+30 210 6410139
  • Email: [email protected]
Print Friendly, PDF & Email