Motor Oil (Results Q4/FY 2014): Motor oil reports its Q4 earnings today after market hours, followed by a conference call on Tuesday. We expect Motor oil’s refining division to show an improved operating performance in 4Q:14 compared to 3Q:14 aided by better refining margin while domestic market is peeking up on stabilizing automotive fuels demand and increasing heating oil volumes. In specifics:
¡ Motor oil continues to run flat out its refinery capacity exceeding nominal capacity keeping exports above 60% mark. However lower prices in fuel oil may settle turnover lower at €2.2bn levels (vs €2.4bn in Q3 2013).
¡ Motor oil’s refinery margin is expected to reach 9,8 $/bbl in Q4 vs 9.2.8$/bbl in Q3 Having said that we expect Q4 “clean” EBITDA to reach €120m (vs €85.4m in Q3 2013) while estimated inventory losses should settle at €70m.
¡ Clean Net Earnings are seen at €61m vs €16.9m in Q3.
¡ Refining outlook is improving as benchmark margins momentum is positive in Q1 2015. Despite sharp oil drop in spot prices and inventory losses we expect positive impact on working capital and better FCF while heating oil demand is seen improving in the first two months of the quarter helping marketing revenues.
¡ Conference call will focus on refining margins evolution and near term outlook for domestic market.
Conference Call (Tue. 17 Mar. 17:30 GR Time):
¡ GRE participants 00800 4413 1378
¡ GBR participants 0800 953 0329
¡ US participants 1866 819 7111
¡ Other Intern. participants + 44 (0) 1452 542 301