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Piraeus bank (Q1:16 Preview):

Piraeus Bank will announce its Q1’16 results today after the market close, while a conference is scheduled for 18:00 GR-Time.

We expect the bank to report recurring profit of €6m from losses of €1.2bn in Q4’15 (and losses of €69m a year ago) on higher Pre-Provision revenues (117% q-o-q and 18.7% y-o-y) and significantly lower provisions, which we see at €253m and 82% lower q-o-q, implying a CoR (on gross loans) of 200bps from 1080bps in Q4’15.

On our estimates we assigned more or less the trends witnessed in Eurobank Q1:16 (higher NIM by 2bps, stable fees and lower CoR). NPL ratio is seen at 41% and coverage at 64%. Conference call to focus on funding costs and NPLs & NPEs evolution.


Conference Call (25/5, 18:00 GR-time):


The following table summarise our Q1 estimates:


(In Million Euro) 1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 E QoQ YoY
NII 499 463 472,0 1,9% -5,4%
Fee income 81 79 75,0 -5,1% -7,2%
Trading -8 46 15 -67,4% 287,5%
Other Income 13 20 15 -25,0% 15,4%
Total income 581 608 577 -5,1% -0,7%
Operating costs -361 -488 -316 35,2% 12,5%
Pre-provision-profits 220 120 261 117,5% 18,7%
Provisions -286 -1.384 -253 81,7% 11,6%
PBT -54 -1.527 8,0 100,5% 114,9%
Corporate taxes -15 290 2 -99,2% 115,6%
Net profit (continued) -69 -1.237 6 100,5% 108,3%


Motor oil (Q1:16 Preview):

Motor will announce its Q1’16 results today after the market close, while a conference is scheduled tomorrow at 17:30 GR-Time.

We expect a solid quarter on healthy refining margins, relatively low inventory losses and strong FCF generation.

On our estimates we see Sales down by 20% at€1.35bn on lower crude prices while adj. EBITDA are seen at €122m (+7.1% y-o-y). Refining division is up by 12% at €108m as Med margins on average stood at 8.5 $/bbl while marketing division should contribute another €14m (-31%) on lower heating oil consumption and flat automotive fuels demand.

On a reported level MOH’s EBITDA is seen at 112m. Bottom line MOH is expected to post €44m (+5% y-o-y). Exports are expected at 67.5% (vs 67% in Q1:15) and significant reduction to working capital needs due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices should generate €60m of FCF bringing net debt to €621m (vs 953m in Q1:15 and 681m in Q4:15). All in all we expect a strong start with solid operating performance.


The following table summarise our Q1 estimates:


Motor oil 2015 2016 Y-o-Y
(in m Eur.) Q1 Q1 Ε Δ (%)
Sales 1,622 1,350 -20.1%
EBITDA 104.3 112.0 6.9%
Adj. EBITDA 113.3 122.0 7.1%
of Which Refining 95.0 108.0 12.0%
of which Marketing & other 18.3 14.0 -30.7%
Net Earnings 41.7 44.0 5.2%
Adj. Net Earnings 48.4 48.9 1.2%


Conference Call (26/5, 17:30 GR-time):

  • GBR                         0800 953 0329
  • GRE                         00800 4413 1378
  • US                           1866 819 7111
  • Other                       + 44 (0) 1452 542 301


Fourlis Holdings (Q1:16 Review):

Fourlis Q1 net losses reduced by 31% y-o-y to EUR3.2m (vs BETAe of EUR2.9m) from EUR4.7m in 1Q15, penalized by business seasonality effects, since first quarter historically accounts for only 19-10% of key IKEA franchise.

Meanwhile, as expected, 1Q16 bottom-line suffered from high depreciation charges (EUR3.2m) and net financial expenses (EUR3.7m). The latter includes cEUR0.5m m-t-m valuation loss linked to “The Mall” (Sofia/Bulgaria), which appears as extra financial cost in IKEA franchise P&L.

In more details:


  • Despite harsh market conditions in Greece, Q1 group sales were up 4% y-o-y to EUR92m (BETAe EUR90.8m), driven by growths of a) 7% in IKEA to EUR59.6m (3% ahead of our estimates) reflecting market share gains locally, and b) 4% in Intersport to EUR32.4m (in line).
  • Tellingly, IKEA number of visitors posted an increase of 7% y-o-y to 2.36m from 2.18m in 1Q15, while Intersport’s traffic grew by 4.2% to 851k vs 817k a year ago fuelled also by 2 new store rollouts (+1 TAF opening).
  • More importantly, IKEA EBITDA jumped 55% y-o-y to EUR2.3m in Q1, thanks to gross margin enhancement of c60bps to 39.4%, operating efficiency gains, owing also to favorable y-o-y comparisons.
  • In a similar pattern, first quarter Intersport EBITDA more than doubled to EUR1.4m (coming much stronger vs our call of EUR0.7m), on the back of resilient gross margins (44.3%) and significant cost savings.
  • At a group level, Q1 EBITDA rose by 89% y-o-y to EUR3m against EUR1.6m over the same period a year earlier.
  • End-March 2016 net debt reached EUR146.9m compared with EUR163.3m in 1Q15 and EUR124.8m in FY15.
  • Overall, FH got off to a positive start, we believe, paving the way for 2x up 2016e group net earnings growth to EUR6m (albeit from a low base), on upbeat IKEA+Intersport profitability (middle-digit sales increase, strong gross margins, high operating leverage).
  • We consider Fourlis as our preferred growth story via which to play Greece’s potential recovery.


The following table summarise Group results vs our estimates:


Fourlis 2015 2016 Α Y-o-Y 2016 Ε Act. vs
EUR m. Q1 Q1 (%) Q1 Est.
Sales 88.6 92.0 3.9%  90.8 1.3% 
EBITDA 1.1 3.0 165.7%  3.1 -2.2% 
EBITDA Mrg 1.3%  3.3%  +199 bps  3.4%  -3.4%
Net Income -5.2 -3.2 38.2%  -2.9 -9.1% 
Net Mrg -5.8%  -3.5%  +236 bps  -3.2%  7.7%


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